Now on the positives side, a knowledge well in advance that we will have a pool of 1.2 billion humans aged over 65 versus around 700,000 today means that products and services can be tailored for the preferences and income profile of this demographic. Fertility rates have fallen due, in part, to higher rates of labor force participation by women in advanced economies and lower rates of maternal and infant mortality in developing economies. So the scale and physical location of these population changes are more or less well established, but what is less clear is whether this is a good or bad thing? For a start, we should point out that this is happening for good reasons: global life expectancy has increased from 47 to 72 years this century. The portion of the world living in high income countries will fall from 32% in 1950 to 10% by 2050. Of these, SSA will account for over a quarter of total population growth for the rest of this century. The main centers of continued population growth are in the Indian subcontinent and Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, as the World Bank (2016) found, one way to look at this is that ageing is heavily impacting the world’s fastest growing economies: countries with shrinking labor forces contribute to 90% of today’s global economic growth. Change in the Working-Age Share of the Population, 2020-50 (percentage points) Note: Working-age population is aged 15-64 years. Even the major population centers of Latin America, particularly Brazil, are experiencing a shrinking share of their working-age population.įig 1. It will not surprise you that Europe, Japan, and the United States are on that list, but look at China, its labor market is shrinking faster than Japan. The darker the color, the faster the aging. This map (Fig 1) shows you the change in the size of the labor force, relative to the total population, over the next 30 years. These trends are widespread, but there is considerable diversity across regions.The year 2018 marked an epochal demographic turning point: Earth became home to more people aged 65 years and over than children under five for the first time ever. The share of the population over age 65 will rise from 5% in 1950 to 15% in 2050 to a quarter of the planet’s population by 2100. The population of the earth will stabilize at around 11 billion. It will decline gradually over the course of this century and by 2100, it will be almost zero. Between 19, average annual population growth was 1.6%. The global population is growing more slowly and will stabilize this century.This is what is most certainly “certain” about when it comes to global demographic change: Yet, demographers are reasonably certain that we are facing big changes in our population growth rate and structure and we mostly know when and where those changes will take place. While much is now known about the scale of the challenge that humanity faces from climate change, AI, and new healthcare developments, there are still important questions about the timing and nature of these challenges. You might wish to exchange information on the Course Forum.As Joseph Coughlin noted in a recent MIT Technology Review issue entitled “Old Age is Over if You Want It”, of all the big mega-trend challenges facing humanity in the next few decades, changing global demography is the most predictable and, at one level, the most certain. ' A Slow-burning Fuse', The Economist, 27th June 2009.Ĭomplete the ‘Population Quiz’ (part of the handout). 4 ‘Toward Order and Efficiency’, 5 ‘The Population of Poor Countries’ and 6 ‘The Future’. Massimo Livi Bacci, A Concise History of World Population (2012 and previous editions), chs. Kunzig, "Population Seven Billion," National Geographic, January 2011, pp. Sachs, Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet (London: Penguin, 2008), pp. Please read all key readings (notice that because of the size of files, they have been divided into different parts) How has the world population changed over time? And has its geography changed? Are modern demographic trends important to understand wealth inequality? Is there a correlation between population trends and the divide between North and South or Developed and Under-developed world? What are the problems caused by shrinking population in Europe viz-a-viz a demographic explosion in Africa? Is state intervention a meaningful tool to shape demography? Population and Demography: Globalisation in Numbers of Nations One World: A History of Globalization, 1750-2050 (HI31V).Research Fund Form (Restricted permissions).History Undergraduate - Current Students.History Postgraduate - Current Students.Virtual Yearbooks (Restricted permissions).
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